Rental market · St. Marys, PA · Incorporated city
St. Marys, PA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Middle Atlantic · Population 12,529
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #3,269 of 4,812. The standardized Buy & Hold screen cannot produce a complete result for this city.
Supported strengths
Cash Flow 64/100 and Stability 53/100.
Measured weakness
Growth is the weakest category at 21/100.
Missing screen inputs: investor-entry price estimate. Primary evidenced risk: for-sale supply is the weakest measured factor (1st national percentile).
Data caveat: no missing input is treated as a zero cost. Bring an actual property’s price, rent, taxes, condition, and insurance quote to the calculator.
Why this grade
Overall 41.2 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Growth carries 61% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Inside Growth, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is job growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 1st national percentile, 43% of the category's own shortfall); next is population growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 11th national percentile, 38% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. All 13 factors were measured for this market, so no category is carrying a gap.
How St. Marys ranks nationally
Each row places St. Marys against all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets. The marker is this city; the centre tick is the national median, and the bar spans from that median to the marker, so its length is how far from the middle of the country this market sits and the side it falls on is the direction. Further right is more favorable to an investor: inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
We can't build a representative buy-box for St. Marys yet: no investor-entry price (Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI) could be identity-matched to this market. Rather than fabricate numbers, bring your own price and rent to the calculator.
Open the cash-flow calculator →Market Negotiation Leverage
Balanced (58th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 30, months of supply 14.0, sale-to-list 100.0%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Price & rent history
Home value: no Zillow ZHVI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
Asking rent: no Zillow ZORI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
ZIP markets in St. Marys
1 Census ZIP Code (ZCTAs) officially overlap St. Marys by land area · 1 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, St. Marys's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for St. Marys itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
1 of 1 overlapping ZIP Code area, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15857St. Marys | F 24#18,565 nat | RankedPrimary | 47#11,102 of 20,132 · bottom 45% | 32#16,682 of 20,132 · bottom 17% | 6.1%Survey yield |
The honest read
St. Marys scores 41/100 overall (grade D): 64 for Cash Flow, 21 for Growth, and 53 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield fallback | 2.5% | Below median45th percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income fallback | 2.2x | Top 10%98th percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | -0.5%/yr | Bottom quartile11th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | -1.5%/yr | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 4.6%/yr | Below median43rd percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth fallback | 4.4%/yr | Above median66th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth fallback | 4.9%/yr | Above median55th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 4.5% | Below median34th percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 8.1% | Bottom quartile19th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.3% | Below median35th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 14.0 mo | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 30 days | Above median66th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.0% | Above median66th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -0.0/1k | Below median49th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 2.7/1k | Top 10%91st percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 29% | Above median57th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1961 | Bottom quartile19th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | not measured | - | derived | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | not reported | - | FBI CDE | No agency reported this place to the FBI. We never impute a crime number; where it is missing, the Stability category renormalizes over its remaining factors. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 42047); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Yield uses ACS median gross rent and home value (Census survey data, 2020–2024 average) because Zillow does not cover this city - not directly comparable to Zillow-based yields.
- Data flag: cashYield: ACS fallback (no Zillow rent+value).
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback.
- Data flag: appreciation: ACS CAGR fallback.
Where to go next from St. Marys
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Pennsylvania rankings, and national look-alikes
- Altoona, PAGrade D · score 42/100 · yield 9.4% · $139,939 · #3,176 nationalZillow ZHVI $74k (2000) to $140k (2026), +90%
- Sayre, PAGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 6.9% · $197,017 · #3,260 nationalZillow ZHVI $105k (2009) to $197k (2026), +88%
- Doylestown, PAGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 4.1% · $527,700 · #3,294 national
- South Williamsport, PAGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 6.8% · $206,756 · #3,303 nationalZillow ZHVI $91k (2000) to $207k (2026), +127%
- Elizabethton, TNGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 5.3% · $233,534 · #3,270 nationalZillow ZHVI $68k (2000) to $234k (2026), +243%
- Grand Forks, NDGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 4.6% · $304,143 · #3,273 nationalZillow ZHVI $162k (2009) to $304k (2026), +88%
- Bristol, VAGrade D · score 41/100 · yield 8.4% · $202,748 · #3,274 nationalZillow ZHVI $114k (2009) to $203k (2026), +77%
Compare St. Marys head to head
- St. Marys vs Altoona vs ElizabethtonThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- St. Marys vs Sayre, PAGrade D · yield 6.9%
- St. Marys vs Grand Forks, NDGrade D · yield 4.6%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a St. Marys deal
- Cap rateOpens on St. Marys's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on St. Marys's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare St. Marys against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Pennsylvania ZIP CodesEvery Pennsylvania ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.