Research note · generated 2026-09-14

Why a Top-Ranked Rental Market May Still Fail a Cash-Flow Test

The Overall City Market Score asks whether a market has a strong mix of Cash Flow characteristics, Growth, and Stability. The Buy & Hold screen asks whether a financed rental at an attainable market-level price can carry itself under one published scenario. A city can lead the first list and fail the second without either result being contradictory.

DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,787 of 5,214 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-09-14Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-05 · Census ACS 5-yr 2023 · Census PEP 2024 · Census BPS 2023 · BLS LAUS 2023 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2023How this is built

The current leading example: Brownsburg, IN

Overall rank #1 of 4,787, Overall Score 84.5/100. Standardized Buy & Hold result: Does not meet screen.

Does not meet
Investor-entry estimate$271,005
Modeled rent$1,994/mo
25% down · base cash flow−$110/mo
25% down · rent stress−$260/mo
Hold Coverage0.92
Limiting requirementCash flow is not positive after reserves at 25% down

What the two results mean

Overall Score is a market-quality screen. It compares thirteen public factors across the national city universe. It is useful for deciding where to research, but it does not claim that a typical financed purchase works at today’s rate.

Buy & Hold is a conditional financial screen. It uses Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI as an attainable entry estimate, ZORI or ACS rent, measured local property tax, 7% financing, vacancy, management, maintenance, CapEx, closing costs, and a 0.5% insurance allowance. It then requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage of at least 1.10, and nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent.

What the current dataset says

205 markets clear the complete baseline screen at 25% down, and 164 also clear it at 20% down. 0 of the current Overall Score top ten pass. That is useful evidence: strong fundamentals do not erase acquisition price and debt service.

These are modeled candidates, not verified properties. The price and rent inputs are not property-matched, cash-flow ranges are named scenarios rather than confidence intervals, and the insurance allowance is not a premium estimate.

Explore the Buy & Hold Universe →

How to use the result

Use the shortlist to decide where to look. On a city page, compare the investor-entry estimate with the conditional price ceiling and the modeled rent with the required-rent threshold. Then open the calculator and replace every market estimate with a real property’s lease evidence, taxes, insurance quote, condition, utilities, HOA, financing, and repair plan.

Data as of: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI through the latest monthly release · Census ACS 5-yr 2019–2023 · Census PEP July 2024 · BLS LAUS county 2023 annual. Generated 2026-09-14. Methodology & limitations · underwrite any specific deal with the free calculators.