Rental market · Lancaster, PA · Incorporated city
Lancaster, PA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Middle Atlantic · Population 57,719
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #1,509 of 4,812. The standardized Buy & Hold screen cannot produce a complete result for this city.
Supported strengths
Cash Flow 60/100 and Growth 50/100.
Measured weakness
Stability is the weakest category at 49/100.
Missing screen inputs: investor-entry price estimate. Primary evidenced risk: violent crime is the weakest measured factor (19th national percentile).
Data caveat: no missing input is treated as a zero cost. Bring an actual property’s price, rent, taxes, condition, and insurance quote to the calculator.
Why this grade
Overall 53 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Growth carries 38% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Inside Growth, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is population growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 30th national percentile, 48% of the category's own shortfall); next is job growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 38th national percentile, 42% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. All 13 factors were measured for this market, so no category is carrying a gap.
How Lancaster ranks nationally
Each row places Lancaster against all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets. The marker is this city; the centre tick is the national median, and the bar spans from that median to the marker, so its length is how far from the middle of the country this market sits and the side it falls on is the direction. Further right is more favorable to an investor: inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
We can't build a representative buy-box for Lancaster yet: no investor-entry price (Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI) could be identity-matched to this market. Rather than fabricate numbers, bring your own price and rent to the calculator.
Open the cash-flow calculator →Market Negotiation Leverage
Strong seller leverage (15th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 13, months of supply 1.5, sale-to-list 101.1%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Lancaster, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
10 measured Zillow figuresasking rent $1,554/mo · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $1,554/mo |
|---|---|
| Market heat index | 71 |
| Median days to pending | 6 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 24.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 100.2% |
| For-sale inventory | 333 |
| New listings | 187 |
| Median list price | $348,150 |
| Median sale price | $379,000 |
| Measured 3-yr rent growth | 4.24%/yr |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Price & rent history
Asking rent $809 → $1,547 (2015-02–2026-08)
Home value: no Zillow ZHVI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-09), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Lancaster
3 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Lancaster by land area · 3 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Lancaster's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Lancaster itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
3 of 3 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17603Lancaster | B 60#3,516 nat | RankedPrimary | 44#12,229 of 20,132 · bottom 39% | 62#4,686 of 20,132 · top 23% | 6.2%Survey yield |
| 17601Lancaster | B 63#2,286 nat | RankedPrimary | 40#13,890 of 20,132 · bottom 31% | 60#5,347 of 20,132 · top 27% | 5.3%Survey yield |
| 17602Lancaster | B 61#3,199 nat | RankedPrimary | 43#12,626 of 20,132 · bottom 37% | 76#779 of 20,132 · top 4% | 5.9%Survey yield |
The honest read
Lancaster scores 53/100 overall (grade B): 60 for Cash Flow, 50 for Growth, and 49 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield fallback | 2.8% | Above median52nd percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income fallback | 3.4x | Top quartile75th percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | -0.0%/yr | Below median30th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 0.3%/yr | Below median38th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 7.0%/yr | Top quartile80th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth | 5.3%/yr | Top 10%90th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZORI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth fallback | 5.9%/yr | Top quartile81st percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 3.4% | Top quartile82nd percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 3.1% | Top quartile78th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.6% | Bottom quartile24th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 1.5 mo | Top quartile89th percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 13 days | Top 10%90th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.1% | Top quartile80th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -2.3/1k | Below median36th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 20.6/1k | Below median28th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 29% | Above median59th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1938 | Bottom 10%1st percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | not measured | - | derived | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | 31 /100k | Below median30th percentile · Stability | FBI CDE · 2023 | Reported violent-crime rate, municipal police department. Scored in the Stability category; property crime is scored too but shown here as the headline safety number. City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 42071); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Yield uses ACS median gross rent and home value (Census survey data, 2020–2024 average) because Zillow does not cover this city - not directly comparable to Zillow-based yields.
- Data flag: cashYield: ACS fallback (no Zillow rent+value).
- Data flag: appreciation: ACS CAGR fallback.
Where to go next from Lancaster
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Pennsylvania rankings, and national look-alikes
- Tyrone, PAGrade B · score 54/100 · yield 6.8% · $139,800 · #1,426 national
- Kingston, PAGrade B · score 54/100 · yield 7.7% · $237,157 · #1,437 nationalZillow ZHVI $83k (2000) to $237k (2026), +185%
- Swoyersville, PAGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 6.0% · $217,830 · #1,543 nationalZillow ZHVI $85k (2000) to $218k (2026), +157%
- Hazleton, PAGrade B · score 52/100 · yield 8.6% · $224,339 · #1,588 nationalZillow ZHVI $64k (2000) to $224k (2026), +250%
- Brighton, COGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 4.9% · $490,018 · #1,508 nationalZillow ZHVI $181k (2000) to $490k (2026), +171%
- Choctaw, OKGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 5.8% · $307,427 · #1,510 nationalZillow ZHVI $121k (2000) to $307k (2026), +155%
- Parker, COGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 4.0% · $676,203 · #1,507 nationalZillow ZHVI $229k (2000) to $676k (2026), +195%
Compare Lancaster head to head
- Lancaster vs Tyrone vs BrightonThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Lancaster vs Kingston, PAGrade B · yield 7.7%
- Lancaster vs Choctaw, OKGrade B · yield 5.8%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Lancaster deal
- Cap rateOpens on Lancaster's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Lancaster's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Lancaster against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Pennsylvania ZIP CodesEvery Pennsylvania ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.