Rental market · Chester, IL · Incorporated city
Chester, IL: average rent, home values, and rental yield
East North Central · Population 6,797
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #1,569 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen.
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$60,450 | Entry estimate$67,167 | 10% above entry$73,884 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$836/mo | +$240/moHC 1.79 · clears financial screen | +$190/moHC 1.58 · clears financial screen | +$150/moHC 1.40 · clears financial screen |
| Modeled rent$760/mo | +$180/moHC 1.60 · clears financial screen | +$130/moHC 1.40 · clears financial screen | +$90/moHC 1.24 · clears financial screen |
| 10% lower rent$684/mo | +$120/moHC 1.40 · clears financial screen | +$80/moHC 1.23 · clears financial screen | +$30/moHC 1.08 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$760/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$40/mo
- Management−$60/mo
- Maintenance−$40/mo
- Property tax−$90/mo
- Insurance allowance−$30/mo
- NOI+$510/mo
- CapEx reserve−$40/mo
- Debt service−$340/mo
- Cash flow+$130/mo
Two supported strengths
Cash Flow 89/100 and Stability 63/100.
Weakest measured signal
Growth is the weakest category at 27/100.
Primary evidenced risk: population growth is the weakest measured factor (1st national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ACS survey gross rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 52.6 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Growth carries 72% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Inside Growth, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is population growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 1st national percentile, 46% of the category's own shortfall); next is job growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 1st national percentile, 46% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. 2 of the 13 factors could not be measured for this market (violent crime, property crime). Its category renormalizes over the factors that remain: a factor we could not measure is never imputed to fill the gap and never scored as neutral.
How Chester ranks nationally
Each row places Chester against all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets. The marker is this city; the centre tick is the national median, and the bar spans from that median to the marker, so its length is how far from the middle of the country this market sits and the side it falls on is the direction. Further right is more favorable to an investor: inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Chester, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Thin margin. At 25% down, named scenarios span +$80 to +$130/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $67,167; typical home value $114,241. Rent = Census ACS (fallback) (a typical all-homes rent, not tier-matched, so the ratio likely overstates the entry-level reality). Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 1.62% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. As of 2026-07-10.
Price & rent history
Home value $91,151 → $114,241 (2009-03–2026-08)
Asking rent: no Zillow ZORI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-09), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Chester
1 Census ZIP Code (ZCTAs) officially overlap Chester by land area · 1 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Chester's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Chester itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
1 of 1 overlapping ZIP Code area, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62233Chester | D 39#13,953 nat | RankedPrimary | 51#9,214 of 20,132 · top 46% | 50#9,518 of 20,132 · top 47% | 7.6%Survey yield |
The honest read
Chester scores 53/100 overall (grade B): 89 for Cash Flow, 27 for Growth, and 63 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield fallback | 4.3% | Top quartile82nd percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 1.4x | Top 10%99th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | -1.3%/yr (observed -1.1%/yr, capped for scoring) | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | -1.4%/yr | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 11.0%/yr | Top 10%98th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth fallback | 4.6%/yr | Above median74th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 5.0%/yr | Above median58th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | Above median61st percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 1.9% | Top 10%92nd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.6% | Bottom quartile22nd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply fallback | 2.9 mo | Above median51st percentile · Stability | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | not measured | - | derived | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | not measured | - | derived | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | +3.1/1k | Above median67th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 0.8/1k | Top 10%98th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 25% | Top quartile88th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1957 | Bottom quartile14th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 53% | Bottom 10%6th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | not reported | - | FBI CDE | No agency reported this place to the FBI. We never impute a crime number; where it is missing, the Stability category renormalizes over its remaining factors. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 17157); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Yield uses ACS median gross rent and home value (Census survey data, 2020–2024 average) because Zillow does not cover this city - not directly comparable to Zillow-based yields.
- Data flag: cashYield: ACS fallback (no Zillow rent+value).
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback.
Where to go next from Chester
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Illinois rankings, and national look-alikes
- Herrin, ILGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 10.6% · $113,088 · #1,534 nationalZillow ZHVI $98k (2008) to $113k (2026), +16%
- Crete, ILGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 6.9% · $303,717 · #1,551 nationalZillow ZHVI $144k (2000) to $304k (2026), +111%
- Manhattan, ILGrade B · score 52/100 · yield 4.4% · $398,942 · #1,583 nationalZillow ZHVI $166k (2000) to $399k (2026), +141%
- Riverdale, ILGrade B · score 52/100 · yield 12.9% · $121,430 · #1,619 nationalZillow ZHVI $61k (2000) to $121k (2026), +99%
- Canyon, TXGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 5.1% · $301,025 · #1,571 nationalZillow ZHVI $162k (2009) to $301k (2026), +86%
- Idaho Falls, IDGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 4.2% · $395,714 · #1,574 nationalZillow ZHVI $111k (2000) to $396k (2026), +256%
- Hilliard, OHGrade B · score 53/100 · yield 5.1% · $384,950 · #1,573 nationalZillow ZHVI $144k (2000) to $385k (2026), +167%
Compare Chester head to head
- Chester vs Herrin vs CanyonThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Chester vs Crete, ILGrade B · yield 6.9%
- Chester vs Idaho Falls, IDGrade B · yield 4.2%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Chester deal
- Cap rateOpens on Chester's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Chester's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Chester against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Illinois ZIP CodesEvery Illinois ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.