Rental market · Ceres, CA · Incorporated city
Ceres, CA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Pacific · Population 49,342
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #2,783 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen.
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$350,523 | Entry estimate$389,470 | 10% above entry$428,417 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$1,803/mo | −$680/moHC 0.61 · does not clear | −$910/moHC 0.53 · does not clear | −$1,140/moHC 0.46 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$1,639/mo | −$810/moHC 0.54 · does not clear | −$1,040/moHC 0.46 · does not clear | −$1,270/moHC 0.41 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$1,475/mo | −$940/moHC 0.46 · does not clear | −$1,170/moHC 0.40 · does not clear | −$1,400/moHC 0.35 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$1,640/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$80/mo
- Management−$120/mo
- Maintenance−$80/mo
- Property tax−$200/mo
- Insurance allowance−$160/mo
- NOI+$980/mo
- CapEx reserve−$80/mo
- Debt service−$1,940/mo
- Cash flow−$1,040/mo
Two supported strengths
Growth 50/100 and Stability 47/100.
Weakest measured signal
Cash Flow is the weakest category at 38/100.
Primary evidenced risk: unemployment is the weakest measured factor (2nd national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ACS survey gross rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 44.5 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Cash Flow carries 42% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Inside Cash Flow, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is expense-adjusted yield (weight 22 of the category's 35, 46th national percentile, 54% of the category's own shortfall); next is price to income (weight 13 of the category's 35, 23rd national percentile, 46% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. All 13 factors were measured for this market, so no category is carrying a gap.
How Ceres ranks nationally
Each row places Ceres against all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets. The marker is this city; the centre tick is the national median, and the bar spans from that median to the marker, so its length is how far from the middle of the country this market sits and the side it falls on is the direction. Further right is more favorable to an investor: inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Ceres, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$1,170 to −$1,040/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $389,470; typical home value $450,454. Rent = Census ACS (fallback) (a typical all-homes rent, not tier-matched, so the ratio likely overstates the entry-level reality). Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 0.63% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. As of 2026-07-10.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Strong seller leverage (20th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 10, months of supply 1.3, sale-to-list 99.7%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Ceres, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
17 measured Zillow figurestypical value $456,636 · asking rent $1,960/mo · measured gross yield 5.15% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $456,636 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $393,816 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $555,715 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $457,560 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $1,960/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 5.15% |
| Market heat index | 60 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 26.0% |
| For-sale inventory | 40 |
| New listings | 14 |
| Median list price | $506,300 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | 2.00%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 2.85%/yr |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $357,182 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $433,729 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $506,013 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $605,178 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Price & rent history
Home value $134,489 → $450,454 (2000-01–2026-08)
Asking rent: no Zillow ZORI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-09), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Ceres
4 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Ceres by land area · 4 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Ceres's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Ceres itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
4 of 4 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95307Ceres | B 59#4,128 nat | RankedPrimary | 51#9,130 of 20,132 · top 45% | 68#2,411 of 20,132 · top 12% | 4.2%Survey yield |
| 95351Modesto | B 60#3,786 nat | Ranked20% overlap | 65#4,068 of 20,132 · top 20% | 73#1,375 of 20,132 · top 7% | 5.1%Survey yield |
| 95358Modesto | B 58#4,738 nat | Ranked16% overlap | 56#7,052 of 20,132 · top 35% | 69#2,206 of 20,132 · top 11% | 4.4%Survey yield |
| 95326Hughson | C 51#8,346 nat | Ranked6.3% overlap | 40#13,697 of 20,132 · bottom 32% | 63#4,307 of 20,132 · top 21% | 3.6%Survey yield |
The honest read
Ceres scores 45/100 overall (grade C): 38 for Cash Flow, 50 for Growth, and 47 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield fallback | 2.6% | Below median46th percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 5.7x | Bottom quartile23rd percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | 0.1%/yr | Below median36th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 0.8%/yr | Above median58th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 6.1%/yr | Above median69th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth fallback | 3.9%/yr | Below median49th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 4.5%/yr | Below median44th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 7.2% | Bottom 10%2nd percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 2.6% | Top quartile84th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 0.6% | Top quartile82nd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 1.3 mo | Top 10%93rd percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 10 days | Top 10%94th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.7% | Above median60th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -4.3/1k | Below median25th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 8.4/1k | Above median63rd percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 33% | Bottom quartile24th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1986 | Above median69th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 69% | Bottom 10%1st percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | 31 /100k | Below median30th percentile · Stability | FBI CDE · 2023 | Reported violent-crime rate, municipal police department. Scored in the Stability category; property crime is scored too but shown here as the headline safety number. City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 06099); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Yield uses ACS median gross rent and home value (Census survey data, 2020–2024 average) because Zillow does not cover this city - not directly comparable to Zillow-based yields.
- Data flag: cashYield: ACS fallback (no Zillow rent+value).
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback.
Where to go next from Ceres
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the California rankings, and national look-alikes
- Sacramento, CAGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.2% · $473,797 · #2,743 nationalZillow ZHVI $124k (2000) to $474k (2026), +283%
- Wasco, CAGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 4.8% · $317,130 · #2,754 nationalZillow ZHVI $86k (2000) to $317k (2026), +268%
- Jackson, CAGrade C · score 44/100 · yield 5.4% · $434,822 · #2,799 nationalZillow ZHVI $277k (2005) to $435k (2026), +57%
- Hercules, CAGrade C · score 44/100 · yield 5.2% · $736,702 · #2,800 nationalZillow ZHVI $480k (2016) to $737k (2026), +54%
- Franklin, WIGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.0% · $443,183 · #2,784 nationalZillow ZHVI $157k (2000) to $443k (2026), +182%
- Garden City, KSGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.3% · $233,685 · #2,781 nationalZillow ZHVI $124k (2009) to $234k (2026), +88%
- Bellefontaine Neighbors, MOGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 16.8% · $102,479 · #2,782 nationalZillow ZHVI $83k (2000) to $102k (2026), +23%
Compare Ceres head to head
- Ceres vs Sacramento vs FranklinThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Ceres vs Wasco, CAGrade C · yield 4.8%
- Ceres vs Garden City, KSGrade C · yield 5.3%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Ceres deal
- Cap rateOpens on Ceres's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Ceres's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Ceres against 4,812 ranked cities.
- California ZIP CodesEvery California ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.