Rental market · Lincolnia, VA · Census-designated place
Lincolnia, VA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
South Atlantic · Population 20,320
Why this market does or does not qualify
No Overall City Market Score rank is published. The standardized Buy & Hold screen cannot produce a complete result for this city.
Supported strengths
The city does not have enough measured inputs for two supported score strengths.
Measured weakness
No category weakness can be ranked without a complete score.
Missing screen inputs: City Market Score. Primary evidenced risk: No scored factor is available to identify a measured market risk.
Data caveat: no missing input is treated as a zero cost. Bring an actual property’s price, rent, taxes, condition, and insurance quote to the calculator.
Why there is no grade
The model refuses to rank a market that is missing one of its core inputs rather than score that input as neutral or fill it in from somewhere else. Here it could not measure the population trend. 10 of the 13 scored factors were measured, and every one of them is shown below with its source and its as-of date.
This is a statement about the data, not about the market. A place with no published rank is not a place we have judged badly.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Some seller leverage (32nd percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 36, months of supply 1.5, sale-to-list 100.1%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Price & rent history
Home value $205,921 → $697,888 (2000-01–2026-08) · Asking rent $1,943 → $2,230 (2022-05–2026-08)
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-09), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Lincolnia
5 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Lincolnia by land area · 5 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Lincolnia's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Lincolnia itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
5 of 5 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22312Lincolnia | C 54#6,345 nat | RankedPrimary | 34#16,233 of 20,132 · bottom 19% | 68#2,696 of 20,132 · top 13% | 4.0%Survey yield |
| 22304Alexandria | B 56#5,610 nat | Ranked3.4% overlap | 40#13,812 of 20,132 · bottom 31% | 79#382 of 20,132 · top 2% | 4.7%Survey yield |
| 22041Bailey's Crossroads | C 54#6,613 nat | Ranked1.1% overlap | 46#11,178 of 20,132 · bottom 44% | 60#5,347 of 20,132 · top 27% | 5.2%Survey yield |
| 22150Springfield | C 51#8,186 nat | Ranked0.7% overlap | 44#12,281 of 20,132 · bottom 39% | 54#7,748 of 20,132 · top 38% | 5.0%Survey yield |
| 22003Annandale | C 47#10,555 nat | Ranked0.5% overlap | 28#17,920 of 20,132 · bottom 11% | 54#7,947 of 20,132 · top 39% | 3.3%Survey yield |
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 3.8% | - | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 5.7x | - | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | not measured | - | derived | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 0.3%/yr | - | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 5.1%/yr | - | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth | 3.5%/yr | - | Zillow ZORI · 3yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 3.0%/yr | - | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 3.2% | - | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 3.4% | - | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.0% | - | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 1.5 mo | - | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 36 days | - | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.1% | - | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -8.4/1k | - | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 212.9/1k | - | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 31% | - | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1981 | - | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 32% | - | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | not reported | - | FBI CDE | No agency reported this place to the FBI. We never impute a crime number; where it is missing, the Stability category renormalizes over its remaining factors. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 51059); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Data flag: rentGrowth: under 10yr of ZORI history - recent window only.
- Data flag: popGrowth: missing (place not in PEP - CDP or unincorporated).
Where to go next from Lincolnia
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Virginia rankings, and national look-alikes
- Culpeper, VAGrade A · score 66/100 · yield 5.1% · $458,842 · #287 nationalZillow ZHVI $129k (2001) to $459k (2026), +256%
- Suffolk, VAGrade A · score 65/100 · yield 6.3% · $389,533 · #348 nationalZillow ZHVI $205k (2005) to $390k (2026), +90%
- Buena Vista, VAGrade B · score 64/100 · yield 8.5% · $202,660 · #434 nationalZillow ZHVI $143k (2012) to $203k (2026), +41%
- Colonial Heights, VAGrade A · score 63/100 · yield 6.3% · $298,407 · #503 nationalZillow ZHVI $100k (2000) to $298k (2026), +200%
Compare Lincolnia head to head
- Lincolnia vs CulpeperThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Lincolnia vs Suffolk, VAGrade A · yield 6.3%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Lincolnia deal
- Cap rateOpens on Lincolnia's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Lincolnia's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Lincolnia against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Virginia ZIP CodesEvery Virginia ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.