Rental market · St. Paul, MN · Incorporated city
St. Paul, MN: average rent, home values, and rental yield
West North Central · Population 307,284
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #3,830 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen.
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$198,829 | Entry estimate$220,921 | 10% above entry$243,013 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$1,636/mo | −$20/moHC 0.98 · does not clear | −$170/moHC 0.85 · does not clear | −$310/moHC 0.74 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$1,488/mo | −$140/moHC 0.86 · does not clear | −$280/moHC 0.74 · does not clear | −$430/moHC 0.65 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$1,339/mo | −$250/moHC 0.74 · does not clear | −$400/moHC 0.64 · does not clear | −$540/moHC 0.55 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$1,490/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$70/mo
- Management−$110/mo
- Maintenance−$70/mo
- Property tax−$240/mo
- Insurance allowance−$90/mo
- NOI+$890/mo
- CapEx reserve−$70/mo
- Debt service−$1,100/mo
- Cash flow−$280/mo
Two supported strengths
Cash Flow 48/100 and Stability 31/100.
Weakest measured signal
Growth is the weakest category at 31/100.
Primary evidenced risk: property crime is the weakest measured factor (7th national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ZORI asking rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 36.1 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Growth carries 41% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Inside Growth, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is job growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 26th national percentile, 37% of the category's own shortfall); next is population growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 33rd national percentile, 33% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. All 13 factors were measured for this market, so no category is carrying a gap.
How St. Paul ranks nationally
Each row places St. Paul against all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets. The marker is this city; the centre tick is the national median, and the bar spans from that median to the marker, so its length is how far from the middle of the country this market sits and the side it falls on is the direction. Further right is more favorable to an investor: inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for St. Paul, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$400 to −$280/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $220,921; typical home value $294,297. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 1.30% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. As of 2026-07-10.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Some seller leverage (22nd percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 21, months of supply 1.8, sale-to-list 101.2%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for St. Paul, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
23 measured Zillow figurestypical value $299,582 · asking rent $1,495/mo · measured gross yield 5.99% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $299,582 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $224,739 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $461,515 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $307,339 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $1,495/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 5.99% |
| Market heat index | 68 |
| Median days to pending | 18 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 24.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 100.0% |
| For-sale inventory | 833 |
| New listings | 313 |
| Median list price | $278,300 |
| Median sale price | $315,000 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | 0.64%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 1.10%/yr |
| Measured 3-yr rent growth | 3.01%/yr |
| Price–rent divergence (value − rent growth) | -2.36%/yr |
| ZHVI, 1-bedroom | $168,010 |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $253,380 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $304,770 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $365,062 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $489,782 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Price & rent history
Home value $106,728 → $294,297 (2000-01–2026-08) · Asking rent $1,001 → $1,488 (2015-01–2026-08)
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-09), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in St. Paul
17 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap St. Paul by land area · 16 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, St. Paul's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for St. Paul itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
12 of 17 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55101St. Paul | D 30#16,767 nat | RankedPrimary | 52#8,771 of 20,132 · top 44% | 61#4,817 of 20,132 · top 24% | 7.0%Survey yield |
| 55102St. Paul | D 35#15,364 nat | RankedPrimary | 39#14,461 of 20,132 · bottom 28% | 55#7,526 of 20,132 · top 37% | 5.4%Survey yield |
| 55103St. Paul | D 32#16,082 nat | RankedPrimary | 35#15,839 of 20,132 · bottom 21% | 71#1,655 of 20,132 · top 8% | 4.9%Survey yield |
| 55104St. Paul | D 34#15,424 nat | RankedPrimary | 32#16,873 of 20,132 · bottom 16% | 52#8,787 of 20,132 · top 44% | 4.5%Survey yield |
| 55105St. Paul | D 33#15,771 nat | RankedPrimary | 16#19,761 of 20,132 · bottom 2% | 66#3,374 of 20,132 · top 17% | 3.3%Survey yield |
| 55106St. Paul | D 37#14,517 nat | RankedPrimary | 48#10,469 of 20,132 · bottom 48% | 55#7,453 of 20,132 · top 37% | 6.3%Survey yield |
| 55107St. Paul | D 33#15,938 nat | RankedPrimary | 48#10,469 of 20,132 · bottom 48% | 56#7,112 of 20,132 · top 35% | 6.1%Survey yield |
| 55114St. Paul | D 33#15,913 nat | RankedPrimary | 41#13,519 of 20,132 · bottom 33% | 55#7,277 of 20,132 · top 36% | 5.7%Survey yield |
| 55116St. Paul | D 32#16,015 nat | RankedPrimary | 21#19,178 of 20,132 · bottom 5% | 65#3,493 of 20,132 · top 17% | 3.8%Survey yield |
| 55130St. Paul | D 34#15,551 nat | RankedPrimary | 52#8,736 of 20,132 · top 43% | 69#2,206 of 20,132 · top 11% | 6.0%Survey yield |
| 55155St. Paul | — | LimitedPrimary | — | — | — |
| 55108St. Paul | D 33#15,771 nat | RankedPrimary | 28#17,830 of 20,132 · bottom 11% | 72#1,418 of 20,132 · top 7% | 4.3%Survey yield |
The honest read
St. Paul scores 36/100 overall (grade D): 48 for Cash Flow, 31 for Growth, and 31 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every percentile also carries the band it falls in - top 10%, top quartile, above or below the national median, bottom quartile, bottom 10% - so a bare ordinal still reads as a position; the band restates that percentile and adds nothing to it. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 2.4% | Below median42nd percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 4.0x | Above median59th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | 0.0%/yr | Below median33rd percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 0.0%/yr | Below median26th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 4.9%/yr | Below median47th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth | 3.2%/yr | Below median28th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZORI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 2.9%/yr | Bottom quartile15th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 3.8% | Above median66th percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 6.4% | Below median34th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.3% | Below median35th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 1.8 mo | Top quartile83rd percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 21 days | Top quartile78th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.2% | Top quartile81st percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -5.4/1k | Bottom quartile21st percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 3.3/1k | Top quartile89th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 30% | Below median49th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1952 | Bottom 10%7th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 35% | Bottom quartile23rd percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | 41 /100k | Bottom quartile19th percentile · Stability | FBI CDE · 2023 | Reported violent-crime rate, municipal police department. Scored in the Stability category; property crime is scored too but shown here as the headline safety number. City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 27123); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
Where to go next from St. Paul
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Minnesota rankings, and national look-alikes
- Winona, MNGrade D · score 36/100 · yield 4.7% · $262,085 · #3,810 nationalZillow ZHVI $134k (2011) to $262k (2026), +96%
- New Hope, MNGrade D · score 36/100 · yield 4.7% · $349,790 · #3,822 nationalZillow ZHVI $127k (2000) to $350k (2026), +175%
- Brooklyn Center, MNGrade F · score 36/100 · yield 5.5% · $297,804 · #3,865 nationalZillow ZHVI $99k (2000) to $298k (2026), +202%
- Grand Rapids, MNGrade F · score 36/100 · yield 6.1% · $282,918 · #3,875 nationalZillow ZHVI $163k (2005) to $283k (2026), +73%
- Kennett Square, PAGrade D · score 36/100 · yield 4.4% · $629,223 · #3,831 nationalZillow ZHVI $186k (2000) to $629k (2026), +238%
- Arlington Heights, ILGrade D · score 36/100 · yield 4.8% · $495,520 · #3,832 nationalZillow ZHVI $210k (2000) to $496k (2026), +136%
- Rohnert Park, CAGrade D · score 36/100 · yield 4.3% · $708,209 · #3,834 nationalZillow ZHVI $224k (2000) to $708k (2026), +216%
Compare St. Paul head to head
- St. Paul vs Winona vs Kennett SquareThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- St. Paul vs New Hope, MNGrade D · yield 4.7%
- St. Paul vs Arlington Heights, ILGrade D · yield 4.8%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a St. Paul deal
- Cap rateOpens on St. Paul's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on St. Paul's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare St. Paul against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Minnesota ZIP CodesEvery Minnesota ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsYield, affordability, growth, stability, price band, or whether rent covers the mortgage.
- Where cash flow concentratesThe research behind why some states pair yield with growth and most don't.
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.